• Hamas agrees to an Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal, signalling hope for an end to the Israel-Gaza conflict after nearly seven months of devastation.
• Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the proposal falls short of Israel’s demands.
With hopes of the end of the nearly seven-month-long war, in which Israel has killed at least 34,700 people in the Palestinian territory, Hamas has reportedly agreed to a ceasefire proposal brokered by Egypt and Qatar. The proposal outlines a comprehensive plan aimed at ending the ongoing hostilities.
The ceasefire proposal consists of three distinct phases, eachlasting about 6 weeks and each designed to address key issues and pave the way for a lasting peace agreement. The first phase entails a temporary cessation of hostilities, with Israeli forces withdrawing towards the east and away from the more densely populated areas. Israeli airplanes and drones would also stop flying over Gaza for 10 hours each day, and for 12 hours on days when captives are released. Hamas would gradually release 33 captives (whether captives who are alive or the remains of captives who have died) in the first phase.
The captives to be released are to be women, anyone above the age of 50, those who are sick or non-soldiers under the age of 19. For each civilian Israeli captive released alive, Israel would release 30 Palestinians it has detained. For every female soldier released by Hamas, Israel would release 50 Palestinians. Additionally, the withdrawal of Israeli forces would allow displaced Palestinian civilians to gradually return to their homes in Gaza, while reconstruction efforts and the flow of humanitarian aid would commence.
The second phase of the ceasefire proposal focuses on achieving a permanent end to military operations and securing a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. This phase also involves another prisoner exchange, encompassing all remaining Israeli captives, including soldiers held by Hamas. In return, an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners would be released by Israel.
Finally, the third phase of the proposal involves the exchange of remains of captives and prisoners held by both sides. It also includes a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza spanning three to five years and aims to lift the Israeli blockade of the enclave, a critical issue that has long plagued the region.
While the ceasefire proposal offers a glimmer of hope for peace, reactions from involved parties vary. Palestinians in Gaza greeted the news with optimism, hoping for an end to the devastating conflict that has claimed thousands of lives.And Hamas’ deputy leader, Khalil al-Hayya, has stated thatthe “ball is in Israel’s court”. However, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir immediately took to social media to reject the deal and call for the invasion of Rafah.Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the proposal falls short of Israel’s demands. Nonetheless, Israel has agreed to send a delegation to Cairo for further negotiations.
The United States has refrained from providing detailed comments on the ceasefire proposal. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasised the need for a thorough review of Hamas’ response, while White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby highlighted ongoing discussions at a “critical stage” aimed at reaching an agreement.
It’s essential to acknowledge the intricate dynamics at play in the current ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. One crucial aspect is the Biden administration’s strong incentive to secure a ceasefire, particularly due to mounting pressure from protests within American universities. The potential impact on President Biden’s re-election prospects in an election year adds urgency to the situation. However, Netanyahu faces challenges within his own war cabinet, where there’s apparent reluctance to embrace the idea of a ceasefire. This is evident in the cautious language used, such as “sustained calm,” in Hamas’s proposal as the word “ceasefire” may have been a point of disagreement between the two sides. As Netanyahu’s cabinet has shown, they have no desire to have a ceasefire and would rather enter Rafah and continue the onslaught. This conflicting stance sets the stage for a significant clash of interests. Failure to achieve a ceasefire could jeopardise President Biden’s re-electionchances, while its success might lead to Netanyahu’s political downfall. This may explain recent events, such as Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria, suggesting a potential strategy to escalate tensions and drag the US (and Iran) directly into the war and therefore continuing it, serving Netanyahu’s political agenda. Additionally, Hamas faces immense pressure, with warnings of a potential invasion of Rafah if progress isn’t made on releasing captives.
Taken together, these factors ma explain the different set of motives and pressures shaping the current ceasefire proposal.Whether Israel’s will or the United States’ will plays out is yet to be seen, however there is speculation that other countries including western countries may back this ceasefire proposal.
