- A trio of Western European powers gave Iran a 30 day deadline to improve access of its nuclear sites otherwise face worldwide sanctions.
- Sanctioning Iran harms civilians more than it harms the elite.
The UK, France and Germany have said they have formally notified the United Nations that they triggered the restoration of sweeping UN sanctions against Iran, giving the war torn country 30 days to make concessions on access to its nuclear sites, otherwise face crippling worldwide sanctions.
The countries have said that Iran has been in significant non-compliance with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal since 2019, saying Tehran had been given ample opportunity to become compliant but had either been unwilling or unable to act.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) left Iran after Israel launched a war against Iran, bombing its key nuclear sites, and has been unable to renegotiate a return to assess the state of those sites.
Although Iran has allowed IAEA inspectors to visit the Bushehr nuclear facility — where refuelling is scheduled to occur — Western officials have said that Iran has stopped implementing the Additional Protocol, which had allowed enhanced inspections of its nuclear sites.
In a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, UK Foreign Minister David Lammy said: “Despite repeated warnings, Iran has made no substantive effort to meet the conditions of our extension offer and has consistently failed to provide credible assurances on the nature of its nuclear programme.
“Whilst we have been left with no choice but to take this action, the ball remains in Iran’s court and I would welcome their return to the table with a serious offer.”
Araghchi called the move by the trio of European countries “illegal and unjustified”, demanding that the decision needed to be reversed in the coming days, though he did not immediately outline Iran’s response.
Restoring UN sanctions would make existing US and European sanctions global, meaning Russia and China would also be required to comply. This includes the reimposition of sanctions on Iran’s arms industry.
If the sanctions are reinstated, the US — as a permanent member of the UN Security Council — would gain the power to use its veto to block any future attempt to lift them, a power it currently does not have.
Sanctions and Their Wider Impact
Sanctions on Iran’s arms industry are expected to cause limited direct damage, but the broader economic impact is likely to be crippling. Analysts warn that they could trigger another sharp decline in Iranian living standards, while much of the ruling elite remains largely insulated from the effects.
The proposed sanctions come after Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran, killing its military leaders and high-profile government officials. The conflict was followed by a US military intervention that targeted several nuclear facilities.
The sanctions come at a time when Iran seems to be in a vulnerable position with a risk of another US-Israeli offensive in the future.
