• Hezbollah and Israel agree to a cessation of hostilities for the complete withdrawment from Southern Lebanon for both sides.
• In what may seem like a victory on both sides is a defeat for Hezbollah and Iran but the lack of a complete victory for Israel.
After almost a year of tit for tat border clashes descending later into a full blown war, Israel and Hezbollah have both agreed to a ceasefire that has officially started from 2:00 GMT.
As part of the agreement in a period of 60 days Hezbollah must move all its forces north of the Litani river which is about 20 miles away from the northern border of Israel.
Israel will also withdraw its forces from Lebanon in this period giving leeway for the Lebanese government to regroup its forces in the South to suck up the vacuum to be left by Hezbollah.
According to Lebanon’s foreign minister, the Lebanese army was prepared to send 5000 troops towards Southern Lebanon to do this.
Could the ceasefire be broken?
The ceasefire will be monitored by an international panel led by the US along with Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers.
The US will work with the Lebanese army to deter potential violations, but no US combat troops will be stationed in the area, a senior US official said.
There has already been reports of a couple of clashes along the border between Israeli troops and unidentified gunmen, however this has not been significant enough for either side to call for an end to the ceasefire.
Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz has said Israel’s military would strike Hezbollah if the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL did not provide “effective enforcement” of the deal.
All in all, it’s likely that this ceasefire that was agreed by both sides may be followed through in the initial stages while the international communities eyes are glued to Southern Lebanon as to not destroy the reputation of either country or force however after the initial stages of the 60 day period are met, there is no telling what Hezbollah or Israel will do.
In 2006 there was a similar agreement where Hezbollah had made an agreement to leave southern Lebanon but then came back stronger while more heavily armed throughout the years. Although the ceasefire is being monitored by the international community, after the ceasefire requirements are met and the 60-day period ends, there is no telling which way things may go.
Israel’s ambition of destroying Hezbollah completely has also not been met however most of the leadership who once led Hezbollah have been killed with the now expected Hezbollah retreat, a taste of victory will be in the air for Netanyahu and his regime.
The ceasefire would mean 60,000 Israelis who fled Northern Israel after October 7 will now be able to return to their homes, an issue that was part of the drain on the Israeli economy.
Netanyahu has previously said and indicated that Israel sees Iran as an enemy, and with attacks in Syria with the attack on the Iranian consulate to the killing of Iranian generals also, it become apparent months back that Netanyahu seeks a war with Iran.
In response to the ceasefire deal in Lebanon Netanyahu said it would allow Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to focus on “the Iranian threat” while also saying the ceasefire would put more pressure on Hamas.
Why a ceasefire in Lebanon and none in Gaza when the Gaza genocide was going on almost a year longer?
The number of dead in Gaza is still above 44,000 while in Lebanon had reached approximately 3823, significantly lower than in Gaza.
It must be remembered that Lebanon was a former colony of France who administered the country for 20 years in the last century with still close ties with the country.
President Emmanual Macron of France had pushed for negotiations for a ceasefire a lot more, working along with the US to do so out of fear that the entirety of Lebanon could become completely war torn like Gaza. The White House even released a joint statement with president Macron regarding the ceasefire.
On top of that the fear that the war in Lebanon could escalate into a full blown war with Iran was a real fear with the risk extremely high. Lebanon still has international flights, with international students, journalists, doctors and diplomats inside, contrary to blockaded Gaza. If Lebanon were to suffer the same kind of damage as done in Gaza, a lot of foreign nationals could be killed including the potential of targeted Israeli attacks against Iranians, Iranian buildings, diplomats and leaders.
If this were to happen Iran would be forced to respond, and thus would have led to a regional war in the middle east that would have dragged Iran’s allies in both Iraq and Syria into the conflict and potentially the United States feeling forced to respond. A regional war could have led to ships in the strait of Hormoz being attacked which would lead oil prices to rise in Europe.
The lives of people and children is worth more than the financial loss a war can bring but unfortunately the ceasefire in Lebanon with the lack of a ceasefire in Gaza means that under the current international order this is not the case.
