• Beneath all the rhetoric lies a harsh reality
• The country with the second largest army in NATO, potential to enforce a ceasefire but is too afraid to do so.
As the main hospital in the entirety of the Gaza stip sheltering 1500 displaced people faces an imminent destruction; a global power; the nation with the second largest army in NATO; the nation which was said before the Russian military, swung into exposure in the trenches of Ukraine to be one of the only nations in the world that has a diversified its military to fight off a full scale Russian invasion. The nation with a rare booming young population in a modern world as a modern country. The nation with one of the richest and most applicable histories in the world, whose populace takes pride in their military might and the warrior mentality exhibited by their politicians. nation of Turkiye who under president Erdogan, has took in millions of Syrian refugees more then any other country in the world.
As we look at the track record of one of the most formidable politicians of this century, we shed a tear of the tearful reality that this rare uncolonised nation has been led to do.
Throughout the start of the recent atrocities in Palestine on October the 7th, the news has been just that. Peril, injustice and inhumane treatment of the Palestinians. Many watching there screens at the news everyday have had to focus on other things then current affairs in order to not become desensitised and feel helpless at the events unfolding. Yet there lies a jigsaw that if pulled out would make the entirety of Israels ambitions come to an end. The most vocal exterior country in this war seems to be the country of Turkiye.
Just the other day on the 15th of November president Erdogan of Turkiye called Israel a terror state. A term none of the leaders of the Middle Eastern nations had used when speaking of Israel. Yet the country with the most rhetoric and the most power is the same country who has the most potential of changing the situation on the ground. Not through military means but by a complete blockade of oil entering Israel. It is true that Turkey is not an oil rich nation like it’s middle eastern neighbours, however Turkey’s Turkic neighbour who shares the same ancestral heritage and shares a similar group of foes and allies, Azerbaijan has a huge oil reserve that to this day is supplying oil to Israel. What’s even more shocking is that the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline not just passes through turkey but is also responsible for 40% of the oil to Israel.
If it wasn’t for Turkey’s management and allowance of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline to pass it’s territory, Israel’s economy would take a massive hit and what is seen as an essential commodity to millions of Israeli drivers will climb to such heights in price that not even the comfortable well off Israeli citizen will be able to not look at his receipt as he leaves the petrol station. This oil is used for aircrafts and Israel being a large importer of foreign goods and equipment would have to find more efficient ways to supply its soldiers on the frontlines in Gaza and the border areas.
What’s even more jaw dropping about this influence Turkey has, is that they may not even need to stop the pipeline nor voice out against it. They could simply send a message to Israel that if they continue in their aggression they will suffer a huge embargo on their oil. This one threat could force the unstable unpopular netenyahu government, which is already having to deal with mass protests in Israel because of the crimes it’s committing against it’s own civilians who are being captive to do an immediate shutdown of aggression in Gaza and call for an immediate ceasefire. But why, if so simple and easy just why is turkey withholding from doing such an endeavour?
Over the past decade Turkeys economy has taken a big regression. The currency has depreciated by 60% over the last two years and food inflation just from September to October has reached 72%. A lot of Erdogan’s base supporters are from the lower end of the economic classes and when the economy takes such a toll that even they are affected, it makes them think twice about voting for Erdogan.
One of the big tests for president Erdogan this year was the Turkish presidential election. Although president Erdogan secured a victory over his opponents, it was the first ever time Erdogan has had to make an alliance with Sinan Ogan (third place after first round of elections) in order to remain in power. Erdogan has acknowledged his support has been dwindling and has so since the election had taken place.
What’s absurd is that even during the economic crisis in 2019 and throughout the lockdown period, Erdogan still pushed into Greek waters, knowing it would be condemned by the international community. Even with Erdogan’s wild speeches in the UN where he challenged the international order of nations being forced to stay in there post war borders the economy was still in decline. So why now?
The truth is, after the 2023 presidential elections in May Erdogan surrounded himself with almost a completely different set of advisors and cabinet. In order to make change and to show he is making change Erdogan seemed to let go of even some of his long-time allies and ministers. It’s possible that this may have influenced and penetrated Erdogan’s armour of invincibility that he had worn throughout the years. It’s also a reason to note that the president is set to reach the age of 70 in February and it’s possible he’s risk taking mentality that he has glamorously shown throughout the years is or has come to an end.
