• The end of the so-called humanitarian pause.
• Netanyahu’s warmongering under a democratic system is essential for his survival.
The bombings have started, and the blame has been flung, but to no avail has one side been outdone. 175 people have been reported killed in Gaza since the expiration of the so-called humanitarian pause. pause, which, according to Gaza’s health ministry, only provided limited medical aid to that which is needed by the sector itself. It comes to light now that Netanyahu has told people in parts of south Gaza to flee. Just put yourself in the shoes of these people. Hundreds of thousands fled northern Gaza to the south under so-called ‘safe routes’ that Israel so nobly allocated. only to be bombed in the process of taking these same routes and having the south of Gaza bombed continuously. Now some of these same people are being told to leave the south of Gaza, even when uncertainty lies about where and how they should do so.
A Ceasefire will be political suicide for Netanyahu
Netanyahu has time and time again said he plans on controlling Gaza through the IDF after the war is over. Although he has taken back these claims in public after President Biden suggested it would be a huge mistake, it must be noted that during the end of the recent humanitarian truce, Netanyahu said one of his objectives was to destroy Hamas in its entirety, thus being left with no choice but to occupy. Ever since the dismemberment of truth from the events that ensued on October 7th, public opinion in Israel has shifted far away from sympathising with the Gazan people. Sadly, this has created a pro-genocidal, pro-xenophobic mainstream opinion amongst the previous sympathetic minority of Israeli citizens. If Netanyahu were to call for a ceasefire, something Hamas and 120 UN member states have called for, then it would mean his objective of eliminating Hamas would come to an abrupt end, and thus most of Netanyahu’s nationalistic, pro-genocidal base supporters would be in peril. Added on to the fact that Netanyahu’s Likud Party does not have a majority in parliament and that most Israelis are against the proposition of a ceasefire, it would be the beginning of the end of Netanyahu’s political career to even get closer to such an idea of a ceasefire.
Israeli casualties will be in vain if a ceasefire takes place
Israeli soldier casualties will only increase as the days go by, with the Palestinian resistance showing no signs of backing down to defend their territory. Not a single main Palestinian resistance leader in Gaza has been killed in this conflict so far,which means the infrastructure that the resistance uses is still largely intact. This means that in order for Israel to attempt to truly inflict a significant blow to the resistance in Gaza, they will have to take more bold and high-risk actions that may result in many more of their troops being killed or heavily injured. We must remember that most American casualties in Afghanistan were injuries and not deaths. Yet it was these same injuries that took more of the US army out of action than the number of deaths themselves. So far, although Israel, according to Israeli sources, has lost about 70 soldiers in Gaza, they have had to bear the brunt of 1600 soldiers becoming physically disabled since October 7th. There have been many secondary, unverified sources that indicate the Israeli death toll is far higher than 70 and that Israel may be hiding the real death toll to keep public outrage over government mishandling at a low. None the less, once the ground invasion is over, Israel will have to at some point reveal the number of the true death toll or face the brunt of certain Israeli media organisations doing it for them, thus weakening its government’s popularity. This entails that another big reason Israel may be a long way from calling a ceasefire is because it may not be able to justify the high death toll it may have kept under wraps unless it eliminates the Gazan resistance first.
Will Israel be forced to back down in the end?
Only today, an Israeli official reported that the US secretary of state warned Israel that it likely ‘does not have months’ left to finish their war with the Gazan resistance as domestic and international pressure mounts on US President Joe Biden’s administration to end the conflict. International pressure has been growing worldwide, with both social media and physical protests showing no signs of cooling. Many more members of the US Congress have been calling for a ceasefire since October, with even one additional senator breaking the status quo of democratic senators to call for an ‘indefinite ceasefire’. In the UK, in November, there were approximately 10 frontbenchers of the main opposition Labour Party who also broke the status quo to vote for a ceasefire. As the death toll increases in Gaza with war crimes after war crimes are reported, it may seem increasingly unlikeable for the governments of the western world to propagate such inhumane action against the Palestinian people out of a growing fear their reputation may become tarnished. If Israel is left unchecked in Gaza, with deaths rising to their hundreds of thousands, it may raise the risks of escalation with Palestinian movements across the Middle East, even possibly raising the chances of another Arab spring. This is the first time since the end of the Arab Spring that there have been protests of this scale among the unpopular dictatorships in neighbouring Palestine. The risk of revolution is a risk neither the West nor Israel would enjoy in the near future. A string of revolutions will provoke Iran and its proxies to get involved to prolong the conflict and escalate tensions in the Middle East. Direct involvement by Iran and Hezbollah will escalate the conflict throughout the Middle East significantly, so much so that the economic price the West will have to pay will be a burden they will not be able to endure.
During the 2021 American withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden said the reason for the US withdrawal was to ‘focus on other threats in the South China Sea’. The only real threat going against American and international interests in the South China Sea is China. Many American top generals and analysts believe China’s expansionism within the South China Sea has gone mostly unchecked because of the US and NATO’s occupation in the war on terror. This is something the US is aware of and would prefer not to entangle itself in again.
International pressure will rise with more countries calling for a ceasefire. However, it’s unlikely Israel will budge whilst the Gazan resistance continues to exist. The only real change that may provoke the Netanyahu government to change tactics at this stage is an enactment of sanctions. Whether it be from countries like Turkey (who manage 40% of Israel’s oil), or from western countries who arm and facilitate Israel’s economy. Even if Israel is starkly aware of what a conflict with Iran may bring and the damages it may do, there is no reason for a country who is a nuclear power who has America’s backing, to stop in the pursuit of its nationalistic agenda. However, if there is a risk the US may withdraw their support then Israel may too withdraw their pursuit to prevent them from falling into the same holes as the former Afghan regime.
