• The Turkish trade ministry says restrictions will stay in place until Israel stops attacks and allows adequate humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.
• After a major loss in the mayoral elections late last month, the Erdogan government seems to have shifted its stance, but could it do more?
After just over 6 months of genocide, with more than 33,000 people killed and the entirety of Gaza’s 2.3 million population in a state of starvation, Turkey, one of the only non-colonised countries in the world, has restricted exports of 54 products to Israel.
The Turkish Ministry of Trade said on Tuesday it will no longer send Israel items in 54 categories spanning iron and steel products, jet fuel, construction equipment, machines, cement, granites, chemicals, pesticides, and bricks. It has said:
“This decision will remain in place until Israel declares a ceasefire immediately and allows adequate and uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
This comes after Israel refused to allow Turkey to participate in the airdropping of aid packages over Gaza. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has reached a breaking point, with the Gaza Health Ministry reporting on April 1 that at least 32 people, including 28 children, had died of malnutrition and dehydration at hospitals. This number is likely to increase significantly in the coming days because Israel continues to restrict aid entering Gaza through land crossings.
It must be noted that in late October, Israel pulled out all its diplomats from Turkey after strong criticism from Erdogan about the genocide in Gaza. However, trade and cooperation continued, with diplomatic relations still not completely cut. Erdogan himself had not ordered the rupturing of the ties; rather, Israel had chosen to do so because of Erdogan’s harsh criticism. This shows that the Erdogan government has been reluctant to cut ties with Israel, even when the genocide in Gaza was well underway.
So why now?
On May 31st, Turkey had its first mayoral election since 2019. Erdogan’s AKP party had suffered a major setback in that they had lost 11 cities it controlled in 2019 while performing poorly in the 5 largest cities. For the first time, the main opposition party, the CHP, had won an election since 1977, garnering 37.7% of the votes, 2% more than the AKP party. What’s even more shocking is that the Islamist Popular New Welfare Party (YRP) received 2.8 million votes, amounting to more than 6% of the overall vote. The turnout for the elections was also shocking, with 78.5% participation. This is the lowest it has been since 2004. One of the reasons many voters have chosen not to vote or vote for other parties is because of Erdogan’s foreign policy on Palestine. Turks are well aware that Erdogan could do more, as the suffering in Gaza continues to be the highest it has been this century. Han, the general manager of political consultancy and research company Datailor, told Middle East Eye, “The voters wanted to punish the government for a set of reasons from inflation to Ankara’s policy towards Palestine”.
The decision to take a harsher stance on Israel by restricting aid exports by the Erdogan administration was likely a result of the recent election results as a way for Erdogan to regain his base of supporters. Erdogan has always portrayed himself as a staunch supporter of Palestine, from harsh rhetoric to providing a haven for senior Hamas officials. For many, he was seen as a breath of fresh air to the old pro-Israel regime before Erdogan and thus resonated with many throughout his long and tumultuous time in power. In the recent local elections, however, that portrayal seemed to have been wiped away.
The restrictions seem to be already having an effect, with Israeli businessmen already warning that the restrictions could drive an increase in property and rent prices. It’s a step in the right direction to put pressure on Israel to end its ongoing genocide, but it’s not enough.
Could Turkey do more?
Turkey hoards the second-largest army in NATO and, until recently, had the power to veto any decision to accept Sweden into the alliance. Sweden joined NATO in March after Turkey approved the membership bid in January. Both events took place well after October 7, when the Gaza genocide first began. The deal was the approval of Sweden’s NATO membership in return for the approval of F-16 fighter jet sales from the United States. The deal allows Turkey to now purchase 40 F-16 fighter jets along with 79 kits to modernise its existing fleet. This is something that Turkey has wanted since 2021 but has been stalled by the US. The ongoing Gaza genocide could have factored into the deal in allowing Sweden to join NATO. If Turkey had called for an immediate permanent ceasefire as a condition of accepting Sweden into NATO, it would have increased pressure on the US and its allies to pressure Israel to accept a permanent ceasefire. Yet the Turkish government does not seem to have done so.
Around 40% of the oil going into Israel comes from Azerbaijan through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. This pipeline passes through Turkey and is then transported by ship to Israel. Turkey plays a huge role in the management of this pipeline, and if the taps were to be cut off, it would mean massive economic turmoil for Israel, with oil and fuel prices skyrocketing. Israel would be under enormous pressure to accept Turkish demands for a ceasefire both within and abroad.
The effect this one move by the Turks could have is huge, yet the Turks have chosen not to take things this far. One of the reasons this may be is because Turkey’s economy has been in a crisis for many years now with soaring inflation and a collapsing currency. Cutting off oil from Israel could exacerbate the already damaged economy and make matters worse for Erdogan’s government. However, the Erdogan government has in the past gone against international norms, even during times of economic strife. Only two years ago, Erdogan threatened NATO neighbour Greece with ‘invasion at night’ of its islands. Not too long before this, Erdogan launched a military offensive in northern Syria in October 2019, pushing out Kurdish forces from the area. In fact, during the second Libyan civil war in 2020, Erdogan even sent troops to Libya, backing the United Nations-backed government in exchange for exploration of Libyan waters. Turkish expansionist ambitions were launched with little restraint, even during times of economic strife. Now, however, Turkey has become increasingly isolated in an ever more polarised world. Under a Trump presidency, Erdogan and Turkey had been able to push Turkish influence without much interference, as Trump, being an isolationist ruler, did not bother about non-American-based matters. This later changed when Biden came into power and repumped American hegemony on the international stage. Turkey, along with its foreign ambitions, seemed to take a U-turn, and since then it has not really engaged in too much controversy. Another factor perhaps leading to Turkey’s reluctance to use strong measures to stop the Gaza genocide is the fact that President Erdogan, who is now in his 70s, may have lost the stamina to continue. The recent local elections had seen Erdogan’s AKP party launch a campaign where Erdogan himself was barely visible. Only last year in the May presidential elections Erdogan fought hard, with himself being a key figure in his campaign trail to become re-elected as Turkey’s president. The comparison of the election campaign last year to this year shows a stark change in Erdogan’s drive and energy when it comes to the realm of politics. Something else to note is that after last year’s election, Erdogan had an almost complete change in cabinet, meaning the inner circle that governs Turkey may now harbour far different views on the risk-taking expansionist cabinet that had existed before May 2023.
