● Trump’s return may shift US policy away from backing Pakistan’s military establishment, giving democratic forces like Imran Khan’s party a chance to re-emerge.
● The political future of Pakistan remains heavily influenced by US decisions, highlighting the external control over the country’s path despite its status as a nuclear power.
The political crisis in Pakistan, driven by the military’s neo-control and an alleged US-backed regime change operation, has taken a new turn with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The change in leadership in Washington could have significant implications for the ongoing turmoil in Pakistan, where a controversial government continues to suppress dissent. Here’s a quick insight at the fallout with the Biden administration, the roots of the regime change operation, and what Trump’s coming back to power might mean for Pakistan’s future.
The Biden Administration and Pakistan: A Fallout Rooted in Disagreement & Sheer Imperial Arrogance
Relations between the Biden administration and Imran Khan’s government in Pakistan were strained from the start. Biden’s team was reportedly unhappy with Khan’s refusal to bow down and grant the US military bases in Pakistan after the Afghanistan withdrawal, a hard decision to make while Pakistan was working to maintain peace with neighboring Afghanistan. Additionally, Khan’s neutral stance and refusal to condemn Russia on EU and US demand during the Russia-Ukraine conflict further fueled tensions. His refusal to align with US-led sanctions against Russia was seen as a direct challenge to the Biden administration’s foreign policy priorities, as prior to this Pakistan, when it came to its foreign policies, was deemed as a subservient ‘yes man’ to western imperialism.
The diplomatic strain deepened when a leaked cipher revealed US discontent with Khan’s independent foreign policy, suggesting a push to remove him from power, a direction to overthrow Khan’s govt through the infamous ‘No Confidence Motion’. This set the stage for a contentious relationship between Washington and Islamabad, with the Biden administration implicitly supporting the efforts of Pakistan’s military establishment to sideline Khan, resulting in the regime change operation, facilitated by the Pakistani Military Leadership headed by the then COAS General Bajwa, that followed.
Operation Regime Change: Silencing Dissent and Crushing the Opposition
The regime change operation in Pakistan has been marked by a severe crackdown on political dissent. Following Khan’s ousting in April 2022, his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), faced relentless persecution. Leaders were forced into hiding, activists were detained, and a false flag operation on May 9, 2023, was used as a pretext to justify a broader crackdown. According to reports backed by photographic evidence, unverified individuals were dropped off by a military truck at crucial protest areas, who infiltrated protests, instigated violence, and then the blame was put on PTI supporters, effectively labeling them as terrorists, around 10’000 workers and protesters in total were arrested.
Prior to this the media, too, fell under strict control, with prominent journalists like Arshad Sharif and Iman Riaz Khan along with others were targeted, abducted, and even killed for their critical reporting. Censorship was ramped up, with platforms like X (formerly Twitter) being banned and VPN services disrupted to stifle the voices of overseas Pakistanis who continued to speak out against the military-backed regime.
Trump’s Victory: A Possible Shift in US Policy Towards Pakistan
With Trump’s return to power, there is a growing sense of optimism among Imran Khan’s supporters. Trump had a good rapport with Khan during his tenure as Prime Minister, marked by constructive dialogue and mutual respect. Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s foreign policy approach was apparently less focused on regime change and more on reducing US involvement in foreign conflicts. This context fuels hopes that Trump might adopt a different stance towards the current unelected government in Pakistan, potentially easing the military’s hold.
Notably, many overseas influential Pakistanis supported Trump’s campaign, reportedly on the condition that his administration would review its stance on the current regime in Pakistan. The Pakistani diaspora, particularly vocal on social media, has been instrumental in keeping international attention on the country’s political crisis. Their support for Trump reflects a desire for a shift in US policy that could curb the military’s influence and restore a level of democratic order.
A Crucial Moment for Pakistan’s and the Muslim World’s Future
The change in the US administration has placed Pakistan at a critical crossroads. The influence of the United States on Pakistan’s internal politics has been evident for decades, but the current situation is unprecedented. It is disheartening to see that the fate of Pakistan, the world’s only Muslim nuclear state, is so deeply intertwined with the decisions made in Washington. The prospect of Trump’s return has brought somewhat of a ‘glimmer of hope’, so to say, to those who believe his administration might distance itself from backing the military-led regime, allowing for a more democratic and independent political process in Pakistan.
As the new US administration takes shape, all eyes will be on the evolving relationship between Trump and the key players in Pakistan’s power struggle. The coming months or mybe even weeks could be decisive in determining whether Pakistan moves towards a restoration of democracy or remains under the control of an unelected, military-backed regime. The influence of external powers, particularly the US, on this outcome is a stark reminder of the geopolitical complexities that continue to shape Pakistan’s destiny.
