• Labour makes gains in mayoral and local elections but suffers losses in traditional areas.
• Kier Starmer’s all-out win suffers a fracture with the loss of Oldham.
With Labour now winning the West Midlands and London in mayoral elections, it cannot be denied that Labour has gained a huge win with confidence. The West Midlands, which consist of Birmingham, Coventry, and Wolverhampton, have for two terms been under the control of the government-led Tory Party since 2017 under Andy Street. This win will be a huge boon for Kier Starmer as he tries to use it to ignore and nullify the effects of the Muslim vote. The reality is, however, that although Labour has made gains, it has also suffered substantial losses that cannot be ignored.
Oldham, a town in England’s north-east, has, for the first time in 13 years, fallen away from the hands of Labour. Labour suffered a shock defeat and lost control after it ceded seats to independent pro-Palestinian candidates. This, on top of the fact that London had a voter turnout of only 40.5%, the lowest since 2012, emulates the growing discontent towards the Labour Party over its policy on Gaza. For the West Midlands mayoral election, one senior Labour figure said its candidate, Richard Parker, had made gains in areas such as Northfield and Dudley but had shed support in inner-city Birmingham to pro-Palestine independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob. Yakoob had scooped up 70% of the vote in certain areas, and almost all the wards that had a large Muslim population had chosen not to vote Labour. This highlights the discontent the Muslim community feels about Kier Starmer and the Labour Party and shows the power of the collective Muslim vote.
Labour leader Kier Starmer had been heavily criticised after he refused to call for a ceasefire in Gaza for months into the genocide. Starmer’s reluctance to call for a ceasefire had led to ten frontbenchers leaving their positions in November last year. Only in February of this year, 4 months after the genocide in Gaza was well underway, did he seem to vocalise for an immediate ceasefire, but later amended an SNP motionfor a ceasefire with a caveat saying “Israel cannot be expected to cease fighting if Hamas continues with violence.” With this caveat comes the nullification of a ceasefire with the passing of the Labour Amendment. A trick of manipulation to manipulate Labour base supporters into re-supporting the Labour party with its leadership while continuing in its pro-genocidal policy towards Israel.
Starmer has also been criticised for saying Israel has the right to cut off water and electricity to Gaza, remarks he later amended.
All in all, Starmer’s comments and actions taken to prevent a ceasefire in Gaza have been the main issue upsetting the Muslim communities in England, thus leading to the loss of Oldham, the loss of council seats in the west midlands, and the low voter turnout in London. Multiple senior labour figures have expressed concerns about the losses. Pat Mcfadden, the Labour Party’s national election coordinator, had said that the party’s position on the situation in Gaza has “been a factor in some places,” with Ali Milani, head of the Labour Muslim Network, warning the Labour Party’s leadership on Friday that its position on the conflict in Gaza “is going to have a serious electoral consequence.”
How could the Muslim vote play out in a general election?
Mayoral elections are thought to have more to do with the mayoral candidates and less to do with party politics. It can be argued that they cannot be a good representation of how a general election will play out, as in the last mayoral election, Labour also did well but failed at the general election that followed. This year is unique, however, as it is one of the few years when both a general election and a mayoral election take place in the same year. The discontent felt by pro-Palestine campaigners to disrupt Labour’s achievements during this mayoral election that just went will only encourage them to work harder and be more bold in their strategies and tactics. Usually, the national media attention to a mayoral election is far lower than that of a general election, thus garnering fewer people. A general election has more to do with political party leaders, and therefore, Kier Starmer’s reputation will have a bigger image during the upcoming general election than it did during the mayoral election. The media attention will encourage pro-Palestine groups to mobilise and be well prepared to raise awareness of Starmer’s pro-genocidal stances and manipulative tactics. It’s possible Birmingham, Bradford, Oldham, and other areas that have a large Muslim community will be instrumental in disrupting Kier Starmer’s march to power.
Why boycott Labour when the Tories are just as bad?
The power of the Muslim vote has been shown in this week’s election, with significant fear signals and pressure aimed at Starmer and the Labour Party. During the upcoming general election this year, it’s likely Starmer will be up against Rishi Sunak, a pro-Israel genocidal supporting Tory. So why should Muslims avoid voting for Starmer if it may help Sunak stay in power? Why abstain or vote for a small party when it plays to the advantage of the ruling party? The truth of the matter is that the majority of the Muslim community votes for Labour. During the 2017 general election, an estimated 85% of Muslims supported the Labour Party, compared to 11% who voted for the Conservatives. To enact a change in the long horizon of things within British politics, it makes more sense for the Muslim community to target the opposition Labour party in the upcoming election, even if it will give an advantage to the Tory party, as by doing so we will have a greater impact on having our concerns heard and moulded to the way we want. A united Muslim boycott of the Tory party will barely have any impact on shaping policies and decisions made in the echelons of power the way we want, but if done to Labour, a time may come when Labour becomes more adherent to our concerns, thus less genocidal.
