• Iran blames Israel for two explosions on its key south-north gas pipeline last week
• After disruption in several Iranian provinces, will Iran retaliate?
Iranian oil minister Javad Owji had accused Israel of being responsible for the two attacks last week on the leading south-north gas pipeline network that disrupted supplies in several provinces. He said on Wednesday, after a cabinet meeting, “The explosion of the country’s gas lines was the work of Israel.” Israel has not claimed or acknowledged carrying out the attacks, but it rarely ever claims its espionage missions abroad.
After continuous cross-border attacks at the Lebanese-Israeli border and Israel being bald enough to bomb Beirut, it is not surprising to see that Israel may have once again tried to provoke Iran into a regional conflict. From bombing and killing an Iranian general in Damascus, Syria, to assassinating Iran’s nuclear architect on the Iranian mainland, and now possibly being responsible for sabotaging the Iranian gas network, it begs one to question whether Iran even has the capabilities to launch a retaliatory strike, seeing as they’ve been so reluctant to do so. In reality, Iran has more than just the capability of launching a retaliatory strike; rather, they have the capability of launching a full-blown war with Israel and its allies. The US had been well aware of the strength Iran possesses, so much so that after US troops were killed in Iraq as a result of apparent Iranian-backed militias, President Joe Biden had given the same Iranian-backed forces time to flee Iraq by indicating he would retaliate before actually doing so. In order to prevent escalation and a full-width conflict with Iran, the United States knew that challenging Iran would only bring them into another everlasting Middle Eastern war that would pave the way for tantamount levels of destruction. Iran has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles in its large missile stockpile, some of which are capable of reaching Europe. Iran boasts the largest ballistic missile programme in the Middle East, with drone capabilities that even the Russians have sought to utilise. The largest army in the Middle East is indeed in the hands of Iran, the second most powerful after Turkey. Analysts believe if Iran and Israel were to go head-to-head without any allies of Israel involved, Iran would come out on top.
Iran’s long game
If Iran had wanted to retaliate against Israel, they would have done so a very long time ago. Whether it be through their ally, Hezbollah, or through a direct confrontation, Hezbollah, who reside in southern Lebanon, is yet to unleash their huge missile stockpile on Israel and is still maintaining low-level combat with Israel to avoid a full-on escalation. In 2019, US military intelligence estimated that Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles in its arsenal, with an unknown number being precision missiles. The true damage Hezbollah could inflict on Israel is yet to be seen and may never truly be seen unless Israel decides to escalate the cross-border strikes with them. Iran can show its people that it is retaliating with Hezbollah or the Houthis, another one of its staunch allies or proxies in the region, and so is not compelled to directly attack Israel, knowing it would draw other powers in. It is true that political figures in the Iranian regime have called for the destruction of Israel many times; however, a lot of it may very well have to do with rhetoric. So why is Iran choosing to endure its continuous Israeli espionage on its territory and its continuous bombardment of its allies without escalating or getting directly involved? The answer to that question may lie in the external powers at play. It’s possible Iran is waiting for an opportunity where the US and its allies have their hands tied in another, broader war with other countries, such as China or Russia. The American preoccupation may open an opportunity for Iran to exploit it in order to achieve its own ambitions. It’s likely that a war with Israel will be part of those ambitions.
