• Hassan Nasrullah (leader of Hezbollah) responds to the attack in Beirut, which killed the deputy chief of Hamas, calling it “flagrant Israeli aggression”.
• Deadly bombings in Iran at the 4th anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani’s death, kill at least 84 people.
In a recent televised address, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, condemned the assassination of Saleh Al Arouri, the deputy chief of Hamas, in Beirut. Nasrallah characterized the incident as a “major, dangerous crime” and placed the blame squarely on Israel, terming it a “flagrant Israeli aggression.” The attack unfolded in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, a known stronghold of Hezbollah.
This speech highlighted significant points such as Hassan Nasrallah being very calculated in his response. Nasrallah emphasized that if Israel were to launch a full-scale offensive then Hezbollah would retaliate with its full military capabilities, underscoring a commitment to “no ceilings” and “no rules” in a potential conflict. However, he did not mention any escalation, coming from his side, solely because of the attack in Beirut. This is more in the national interest of Lebanon and less so a commitment to the “axis of resistance”. The axis of resistance refers to armed groups, with ties to Iran, resisting Israel and western powers. These groups include Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
While Nasrallah acknowledged the delicate situation in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah is engaged in a low-intensity conflict with the Israeli army, he also highlighted the strategic national considerations that the “axis of resistance” must weigh. Despite Nasrallah’s resolute rhetoric, there appears to be hesitancy in escalating into a full-scale war, with analysts suggesting that Hezbollah is wary of assuming the responsibility for initiating a major conflict. Furthermore, Israeli has threatened that if Hezbollah were to do anything more intense than it has, then Israel would turn “Beirut into Gaza”.
While the Israeli military refrained from directly commenting on Saleh Al Arouri’s killing, it expressed readiness for any scenario in the aftermath. David Barnea (the chief of Israel’s Mossad intelligence) issued robust statements, vowing to pursue every Hamas member involved in the October 7 attack on Israel. These statements may also link to the 33 Mossad agents that were arrested in Turkey which may have been because of the existence of Hamas officials that are present in Turkey.
This development transpired after almost three months of near-daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli military and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. And this strike in Beirut is the largest since the Hezbollah-Israel war of 2006.
Moreover, both Iran and Hezbollah understand the geopolitical landscape and the potential consequences of a broader conflict. Iran may be cautious about providing further justification for a full-blown regional war. Hezbollah, as Iran’s proxy, is a valuable asset, and both entities are likely to exercise restraint unless faced with an existential threat.
In the midst of these regional tensions, a separate incident unfolded in the Iranian city of Kerman. Twin bombings near a memorial for Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general assassinated four years ago, resulted in at least 84 casualties and over 280 injuries. This commemoration marked the 4th anniversary of the killing of Soleimani, the head of the elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in a US drone strike in Iraq ordered by then-President Donald Trump. These attacks, the deadliest in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, have intensified the geopolitical complexities in the region. While no one has claimed responsibility and there is still much confusion surrounding the bombings, the main suspects (from an Iranian perspective) are The USA and Israel. American officials say they have no reason to believe that Israel was behind the attack. But despite this, Iran still vowed a “harsh response”.
With these recent escalations, it is much clearer why Hezbollah and Iran are hesitant in their responses. This may be because Israel wants a response, giving them and The USA an excuse to expand the war into the wider region.
