• The death toll has risen to over 12,000 while the number internally displaced now sits at 7 million
• While the RSF is expanding its control of Sudan, there is still no end in sight to the war unless one side can force others to negotiate.
With all eyes on the war Israel is currently waging on Gaza, the current situation in Sudan has escaped the notice of many in the west.
Currently over 12,000 people (most of whom are civilians) have been killed in the Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) which consists of a collection of paramilitary groups headed by Sudanese warlord Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti.
Once in league which each other, General Burhan and Hemedti’s fallout earlier last year over a dispute related to the merger of the RSF into the SAF lead to a civil war which began on April the 15th 2023 when RSF forces attacked SAF bases in Sudan’s capital Khartoum.
Even before civil war broke out in April last year neither Hemedti nor Mr. Burhan were interested in transitioning Sudan to a democracy. In fact, they actively opposed this process, with both colluding to overthrow the caretaker government which was planning to establish a democratic state. Its not hard to understand why either.
Hemedti, who controls a number of mines, has made a fortune exporting gold (ostensibly to the UAE and Russia)- he has no intention of handing over power to a civilian government that can place checks and balances on his shady economic ventures. Nor does he have an interest in merging his RSF band of gunmen with the SAF where they can be controlled by General Burhan.
General Burhan on the other hand and the military elites in Khartoum want the SAF’s interests reflected in the governance of Sudan. The Sudanese military intelligentsia deeply despises Hemedti, who they view as an uneducated camel-herding country bumpkin fundamentally incapable of governing Sudan.
The situation in Sudan has worsened since April 2023. Both sides are guilty of killing civilians, and the RSF in particular has resorted to genocide. According to Al-Jazeera the RSF is responsible for sexual violence and the killing over 1,200 ethnic Masalit people in Darfur in order to ethnically cleanse the region of non-Arabs.
According to The Economist magazine over 7 million people are displaced and almost 1.5 million have fled to neighboring states. Most of them are non-Arab ethnic groups from Darfur (in the western region) such as the Masalit and Fur who have crossed the border into Chad to escape violence at the hands of the RSF.
The RSF now controls most of the key strategic points in Sudan having defeated the SAF in major Darfuri cities. RSF forces also defeated SAF troops in Khartoum leading to their retreat further eastwards to the city of Port Sudan- the SAF’s last remaining major stronghold.
Recently watchdogs have reported that RSF militia groups have successfully wrestled Wad Madani (one of Sudan’s biggest cities) which lies about 200 km southeast of the capital, out of the SAF’s hands. Many of the SAF fighters in Wad Madani were civilians recruited as foot soldiers who had no military training but were enthusiastic to defend their cities from the pillaging RSF.
According to Alan Boswell of Crisis Group, a think-tank based in Kenya, “the SAF has virtually not won a major battle of this war”. The main reason for this is that the RSF’s arsenal is far better equipped than the SAF’s. The Associated Press and other media outlets have alleged that Hemedti’s RSF receives weapons shipments from the UAE who send the arms through Chad. The UAE vehemently denies these claims.
By contrast, Egypt is said to be funding General Burhan’s SAF. Given the current economic situation in Egypt, the Egyptian government has failed to keep the pace in supplying the Sudanese army.
Talks of diplomacy have floundered and the presence of other rebel groups operating in the Darfur region and near the border with South Sudan is complicating matters further by adding more fuel to the fire. The emergence of numerous armed factions makes it all the more difficult for one group to best all others.
With western eyes distracted by the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and the threat of China invading Taiwan- the situation in Sudan risks turning into the African edition of Syria, where multiple armed factions with disparate objectives reduce the entire nation to rubble over the course of their skirmishes.
