• Israeli government committee says a direct clash between Turkey and Israel may be possible in the future.
• Turkey poses a new unwarranted threat for Israel.
An Israeli government commission said on Monday that Turkey could pose an even greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it supports a hostile ‘sunni Islamist’ force in Damascus.
After the collapse of Bashar-Al-Assad’s regime last month with the genocidal dictator fleeing to Russia, Turkey emerged as a key player in influence and support of the new HTS run government.
Since the takeover, the Turkish government has vowed to provide all forms of support, including both military and security assistance while helping the new government establish stability in the country on top of providing direct air support for Turkish backed Syrian forces in the north west to take over the remaining US backed Kurdish held regions of Syria.
The former Israeli National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel hosted the Nagel committee which in reality is nicknamed after “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defence Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power”.
The committee was established in 2023 before the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, to give recommendations to the Israeli defence Ministry regarding potential areas of conflict Israel could face in the coming years.
The committee said the fact that the “origins of the rebels and their leaders” previously with some linked to Al-Qaeda it should not be overlooked.
The committee said: “For this reason, it must be considered that Israel may face a new threat arising in Syria, which in some respects could be no less severe than the previous one. This threat could take the form of an extreme Sunni force that would also refuse to recognise the very existence of Israel.
“Furthermore, since the Sunni rebels will wield political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, a greater threat may emerge from them than the Iranian threat, which has been limited due to Israel’s ongoing actions, as well as the restrictions placed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.”
The committee later went on to assess that the presence of Turkish proxies or Turkish forces in Syria could increase the risk of direct conflict between Turkey and Israel while also allowing the rearmament of both Syria and Lebanon.
The committee said: “In this context, we must consider that the entry of the Turkish army into Syria could accelerate the rearmament of Syria at a relatively fast pace.”
Turkey’s NATO membership may ward off any Israeli attack
Under Article 5 of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) treaty if a member of NATO is attacked it is considered an attack on all members and thus each member state must take action to restore and maintain security.
Although the treaty does not identify what is labelled as a ‘armed attack’, Turkey which holds the second largest army in NATO after the United States, with advanced missile systems, air force and navy would find more reason as to leave the alliance if the alliance does not work in its favour in retaliating against an attack by Israel.
NATO will be really reluctant to lose Turkey knowing it’s geopolitical significance in the region by being positioned near the Black sea, deemed the soft Russian underbelly of Russia.
It’s likely an Israeli attack on Turkish forces in Syria or even Turkish backed forces could receive huge backlash from both Europe and the US and thus will not be allowed to happen.
With other factors such as the far right in Europe on the rise and the return of refugees to a stable country, something many leaders and governments would want to leverage to maintain domestic support, it must be noted that Israel will struggle to win its game of chess in Syria knowing the obstacles in its path.
