• A shocking 4000 dual Turkish-Israeli nationals have gone to fight for Israel since October 7th, with many injured and killed.
• The malicious reality of a reluctance to crack down on Israeli nationals in Turkey
At least 4000 Israelis who are dual citizens and have both Turkish and Israeli passports have gone to fight for the IDF since October 7th, when the genocide in Gaza began. According to the Turkiye newspaper, 20,000 dual Israeli-Turkish citizens live in Turkey, and up to 250,000 live in Israel.
During early January, two Turkish-Israeli citizens faced an investigation into their decision to join the IDF. Both Mine Gümüşkaya and Umay Akçay had announced on social media that they had decided to join the IDF to fight for Israel against Hamas. Both subsequently had criminal complaints filed against them after social media backlash. Unfortunately, the majority of Turkish-Israeli duel nationals who fought or planned on fighting in Gaza have not had any charges against them. A significant number of these duel nationals had gone to Israel through third countries and not directly from Turkey to Israel, likely out of fear that Turkish authorities would persecute them, added on with the fact that a flight ban from Turkey to Israel had been introduced later.
The Israeli general in charge of the Iron Dome has Turkish citizenship
Since the ground invasion of Gaza began, officially, 325 Israeli soldiers have been killed. Of these 325, 65 have been dual Turkish-Israeli nationals. On top of that, 110 Israeli-Turkish dueling nationals have been injured. The proportion of Israeli soldiers who are dual nationals of Turkey and are currently fighting in Gaza is unknown, but it is known that the general in charge of the iron dome also has Turkish citizenship. The frequency of Israeli citizens within Turkey could become a security risk in the future if Turkey were to step up the pressure on Israel. It’s possible a lot of these duel nationals could be used by Israel to carry out espionage against Turkey if they are not already. It’s also possible, given Turkey’s current trade ban against Israel, that these citizens could be used to circumvent the trade ban through third-party imports and exports.
Why has President Erdogan not clamped down on Israeli nationals in Turkey, and what does it show about Turkey’s future foreign policy prospects?
The truth of the matter is that Turkey has, for some time now, abstained from taking action against Israel over the genocide in Gaza. Only after the recent local and municipal elections in March did we see drastic action against Israel through the halting of all trade. In the local election in March, President Erdogan lost an election for the first time, something that hadn’t happened in 20 years. The polls after election day showed that a lot of Erdogan’s base supporters had chosen to abstain or vote for another similar political party. The disapproval shown by internal Erdogan-supporting voters was the main reason for President Erdogan’s defeat in March. It was this realization that likely led to the foreign policy of Turkey taking a firmer stance against Israel. So why has Erdogan not banned or at least taken a firmer stance on dual nationals by threatening to strip their citizenship if they were caught fighting for Israel? Why do Turkish-Dual nationals even have the right to have an Israeli passport in Turkey? The likely reason is that President Erdogan does not want to permanently damage Turkey’s ties with Israel to such a degree that they become irreversible. The Turkish economy has been waning for some time now, with inflation and poverty still sky high. It’s very likely that President Erdogan has plans to reestablish ties with Israel after the Gaza genocide is halted to try and bolster Turkey’s economy.
The reality of the lack of Turkish pressure on Israel
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is an oil pipeline that carries oil from Azerbaijan through Turkey only to be shipped to Israel. This pipeline provided approximately 40% of Israel’s annual crude oil consumption. The pipeline, although originating from Azerbaijan, could be cut off by Turkey, increasing the cost of fuel and energy for Israel by a significant factor. Even the mere threat of Turkey turning off the taps can be enough to raise oil prices dramatically. Why has this not been done? The reality is that President Erdogan, although he has halted exports and imports of goods to and from Israel, is not willing to take the big step to pressure Israel into a ceasefire. It’s true the Turkish economy would be somewhat damaged as a result of a decision like this and may even deter international investors from investing, but the blood of one Palestinian child is one too many.
President Erdogan has also enabled Sweden to enter NATO after signing a motion for its accession on January 25. The deal was that Turkey would receive 40 F-16 fighter jets along with modernization kits for 70 of its current ones if it were to enable Sweden to enter NATO, something that it could have blocked. Unfortunately, there are no reports that Turkey has discussed or negotiated for a ceasefire in Gaza as part of the NATO accession deal. Something that could have been a good bargaining chip to stop the ongoing bloodshed.
