• What will this do to the situation on the ground?
• What message does this send to Israel and its allies?
After almost a month since South Africa filed its case against Israel, accusing it of genocide, provisional measures have finally been issued by the ICJ. There was much speculation as to whether the court would approve provisional measures, as for them to be implemented, it would mean that ‘there is a risk of irreparable prejudice to a right that might subsequently be ajudged’. In other words, it would mean that the court recognises that the harm done to the Palestinians in Gaza has reached such a height that it looks as if there is a risk that there will be irreversible damage done. For the World Court that is recognised by Israel and the western world, this is significant as it not only shows that this genocide is incoherent to what Israel claims but also adds more pressure on Washington and London by indicating that the opinions of the world have shifted far from supporting Israel’s right to self-defence.
What do the provisional measures mean?
The ruling on Friday does not mean that Israel is obliged to accept a ceasefire in Gaza; rather, it means Israel will still be allowed to continue its ongoing genocide without any legal repercussions. However, the court has ruled as a provisional measure that Israel must ‘take measures to prevent genocide in Gaza’. This means that Israel would be legally obliged to prevent its ongoing trajectory in some way. Israel is also required by the ICJ ruling to submit a report within a month that shows that it is complying with the provisional measures. South Africa will get a chance to criticise and rebuke this report if or once it is published.
How will Israel react to this ruling?
What must be remembered is that when South Africa filed their ICJ report in December, prime minister Netanyahu of Israel said on X, formerly known as Twitter, “we will restore security to both the south and the north” and that “nobody will stop us—not The Hague, not the axis of evil, and not anybody else.” This is evidence that Netanyahu and the Israeli regime are heedless of the warnings and decisions of the ICJ. Israel has broken many international laws since the start of this genocide on October 7th. From the use of phosphorus on a civilian population to the continuous attacks on hospitals, it becomes evident that Israel does not fear international laws.
When South Africa first filed this lawsuit back in December, Israel had ramped up its attacks on hospitals and universities in the northern Gaza strip. The idea of bombing hospitals that had taken years to build and organise was to drive out the remaining people of the north. Zaha Hassan, a human rights lawyer and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Al Jazeera “Once you have hospitals taken out, you make it impossible for people in war to stay. That’s a part of a strategy to force Palestinian population transfer and permanent displacement.” So why did Israel ramp up these controlled attacks on hospitals only after the ICJ case was filed? The answer to this question lies in the continuous pressure on the US and its allies to call for a ceasefire. Israel knows that pressure is building for a ceasefire, and they know that they will only have a certain amount of time left before they may be forced by international pressures to stop this genocide. Israel knows that if a ceasefire were to be called by the ICJ, it would catalyse the pressure on its allies and on them.
It’s likely that now that the ICJ ruling has been given and provisional measures have been granted, Israel is still in a more uncomfortable position than they may have hoped. It would have suited Israel’s interests if the ICJ had ruled the case invalid and thrown it out completely. Now, however, Israel is quite literally under a genocide investigation. This means if Israel chooses to escalate or rapidly worsen the situation in Gaza, it may be a move that will be followed up by the ICJ in a month after Israel submits its obligatory report to the ICJ to show that it is complying with the provisional measures. This means Israel’s push for capturing Gaza could be somewhat limited in its brutality and fierceness; however, this is mere speculation and not a guaranteed trajectory of how this period will go.
ICJ double standards, ICJ for nothing
The very predicament of the ICJ not ruling for an immediate ceasefire is absurd and irresponsible. More than 26,000 people have been killed in Gaza so far, with thousands still missing or trapped under the rubble. The entirety of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is starving, with a famine imminent. Israel has already gotten away with war crime after war crime. What’s absurd about this ICJ ruling is that the court had previously ordered Russia to halt its war in Ukraine in March 2022. This was only one month after the invasion of Ukraine began, and the deaths in Ukraine are far lower than those in Gaza, yet the ICJ’s language and tone were starkly different. Israel has once again been given the indirect green light by international bodies that are meant to be representative of the progressive international world order. This is more evidence that the routine of the Palestinian authority in the West Bank of cooperating with Israel and the international community is futile.
Palestinians in Gaza, denounce the ICJ ruling.
Armed resistance is the only proven mechanism to sustain freedom in Palestine
Only about 18% of the occupied West Bank is under Palestinian control, with illegal Israeli settlements increasing rapidly over the past few decades. The PLO (Palestinian authority) has tried time and time again to bring the international community together to halt Israeli aggression but has failed at every corner. Since October 7th, since the start of this genocide, more than 1200 Palestinians have been displaced within the West Bank. This shows that even when the entirety of the world is watching the situation in Palestine, Israeli colonialism is inevitable. The power and strength of the international community are limited and dictated by only a few powers, and those same powers have influence over international courts and bodies like the ICJ or the ICC. The ICJ ruling has proven that the justice of the world court is in fact unjust. Yet the Palestinian resistance in Gaza has recently proven that they can strike deep into the north of Gaza under what Israel claims to be occupied territory. The Palestinian resistance has proven that even after Israel claimed that it had ‘dismantled’ it in the north of Gaza, it can operate within that same territory. According to US intelligence, the Palestinian resistance in Gaza has only lost 30% of its troops, contradicting Israel’s claim of wiping out two-thirds. US intelligence also shows that the Palestinian resistance has enough to continue fighting for months longer.
The Palestinian resistance within Gaza has shown that the only true way of preserving and reclaiming its freedom is through armed resistance.
